China's economy
Is this the soft landing?
会软着陆吗？
Jul 13th 2011, 20:39 by R.A. | WASHINGTON
THERE has been a fair amount of anxiety over the state of the Chinese economy of late. News of unexpectedly large debt burdens among Chinese local governments generated a wave of concern that recent Chinese growth has been entirely unsustainable. As the government was forced to turn off the credit tap, some supposed, property prices would fall and a hard landing would result.
近来有许多人对中国经济表示焦虑。中国地方政府债务危机的报道出来以后，坊间担心中国式的可持续增长能否再持续下去。在中央政府收紧贷款以后，部分人士甚至认为中国物价会急降，经济硬着陆。
That seems an unlikely scenario to me. Chinese debt burdens are manageable and its property market dynamics are quite different from those that prevailed in western bubbles markets prior to the crash. That doesn't mean that all is entirely well in China, however. Many observers have taken some comfort in the latest GDP report from China. Output rose 9.5% year-on-year in the second quarter. That constitutes a moderate slowdown from growth in the previous quarter, and was a little above expectations. It would seem that the government's efforts to slow credit growth have not precipitated an uncontrollably rapid downturn in activity.
这些情形在我看来不会发生。中国地方政府的债务总体可控，而且其商品市场的属性跟西方经济危机所引起的泡沫有所不同。当然，这不表示中国的情况乐观。许多观察家很满意中国最新的GDP报告。第二季度生产年比增长9.5%，预计第三季度增长放缓。看来政府紧缩政策并未造成经济减速过快。
Other economic data is a little more disconcerting, however. China's trade surplus surged in June. Its exports to America have been growing and its imports falling. At the same time, Chinese inflation continues to rise; the latest reading is 6.4%. And accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves persisted in the second quarter, to the tune of $153 billion. Meanwhile, a closer look at the GDP report indicated that the contribution of fixed-asset investment to growth tumbled in June, with industrial activity offsetting the fall. Retail sales of consumer goods have held at a constant growth level for most of the year.
其余的经济数据有些令人不安。6月中国出超飙升，向美洲出口增加，进口减少。同时，通胀持续，最新的数字是6.4%。第二季度外汇储备相对稳定，1千5百3十亿美元。对GDP报告的进一步研究指出，6月固定资产投资减少，抵消掉工业的增速。商品零售已年均速度稳定增长。
What does this tell us? China's leaders recognise the need to rein in the country's building boom, but they are likely concerned about the prospects for other sectors that might provide a cushion against a falling growth contribution from construction. One hope was that a boom in affordable-housing construction might offset declines in market-rate property development, but the affordable-housing effort continues to run into delays.
上面的数据告诉我们什么？中国的领导人认识到需要控制国内的建造业大跃进，他们可能更关心能给建造业衰退提供缓冲的，另外一些产业。其中一种想法是寄望于保障房建造，能充抵同样市价的其他投资，问题是保障房建设老延迟于计划进度。
The long-run hope is that household consumption begins to pick up and drive economic growth. But as the GDP data indicate, China is struggling to mobilise its consumers. That therefore leaves the industrial export channel to pick up the slack, and that, seemingly, is what's occuring.
长期计划是希望住房消费能带动经济增长。但是GDP数据显示，中国还在忙于疏散有购物力房的消费者（国八条？）。剩下的洞只能让出口来补了，现在看来也正是如此。
Too much emphasis is placed on the yuan's peg to the dollar, but the relationship tells a useful story here. China allowed the yuan to begin appreciating against the dollar last June, but after a first tick upward it leveled off and even declined against the dollar through last summer. Why? China appeared to be troubled by the slowdown in global economic activity. In the fall, when the data turned positive again, the yuan embarked once more on a steady appreciation.
太多人强调人民币与美元挂钩，这哥俩的一升一跌告诉我们一个重要信息。去年6月中国政府允许人民币对美元升值，刚升了一会儿就停了，甚至还跌破了原来水平，为什么呢？原来是中国政府面对全球经济放缓显得不太有信心。第三季度，情况有所好转，人民币才直线走高。
But the yuan has once again leveled off in recent months. And this pause in appreciation is particularly curious given the problems China is having with inflation, which are being exacerbated by the reserve accumulation that accompanies its currency management. In short, now would seem to be a very good time to allow the yuan to rise a bit more. But the yuan isn't rising. I think that's because China sees little choice but to use exports to offset the impact of falling fixed-asset investment.
最近几月人民升值的脚步又停了下来，可能的原因是，央行外汇储备和汇率调整引起通货膨胀。短期内，是人民币再次升值的好时机。但央行按兵不动，我想可能政府想让出口去弥补下滑的固定资产投资额。
The rub is this: an artificially cheap yuan is one of the ways China suppresses household purchasing power and consumer spending. Its support for exporters is discouraging households that might otherwise be flexing their muscles and leading a rise in domestic-demand growth.
造成了这样一个结果，人为干预让人民币保持低价，是中国控制楼市过热，物价飙升的手段，这种方法虽然有利出口，却损害了普通民众消费的欲望，也就是减缓了国内市场的发展步伐。
Couldn't China just let the currency rise and count on households to provide the growth that exporters no longer can? A new paper by Barry Eichengreen and Andrew Rose suggests it's not that simple. They assemble a sample of countries that left pegged currencies with the expectation that appreciation would follow, and they find that in most cases economic disaster does not result. But:
“[I]t is possible to pinpoint the kind of circumstances where the decision to move to greater flexibility is likely to be followed by a significant economic slowdown. The slowdown‐prone economies are those with exceptionally low consumption rates and high investment rates. They are economies where exports and domestic credit have been growing most rapidly. To put it simply, they are economies with Chinese characteristics.”
那中国能否让人民币升值，然后以楼市替代出口带动经济？一份由Barry Eichengreen和Andrew Rose共同撰写的报告指出，问题远非如此简单。他们构架了一个模型：汇率挂钩，人民币升值，虽不致引发危机。但是，“值得指出，这种灵活汇率制度可能引发明显的经济衰退，低消费，搞投资，出口和贷款快速增加的国家首当期冲。简单来说，就是具有中国经济特色的国家。
China needs a way to rebalance its economy without undergoing a big slowdown, of the sort that might lead to political instability (highly undesirable as a power handover looms). Until now, China managed to take steps in this direction by revving up fixed-asset investment, but it now finds itself forced to pull back on that front. Seemingly short of ideas, it has since returned to the model of big surpluses and reserve accumulation.
中国经济需要重新调节，以免陷入严重衰退，和随之而来的政治动荡。中国政府希望加大固定资产投资，但是发现又回到原点，黔驴技穷之际，只能捡起出超和大量持外汇的方法了。
It's going to end at some point. Maybe not with an economic crash. Amid a growth slowdown, however, the political system could prove somewhat more brittle.
总会以某种方式结束，也许不会经济崩盘。经济放缓，我们将看到中国的政治架构变得脆弱。
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