Affordable-Housing Delays Threaten China's Economy

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304778304576377070740151388.html

ASIA NEWS
JUNE 11, 2011

Affordable-Housing Delays Threaten China's Economy
By BOB DAVIS
保障房建造缓慢威胁中国经济

BEIJING—China acknowledged it was falling behind schedule on ambitious plans to build low-income housing, a delay that could add to concerns around its economy.
北京意识到它雄心勃勃的计划-保障房建设落后于进度，最终会影响经济。

The low-income housing push is crucial, not only as a way to help ordinary Chinese buy homes, but to provide an economic cushion at a time when signs of a real-estate downturn are emerging. Prices of new apartments and the volume of construction have begun to fall in some cities. A big spurt in low-income housing construction has been seen by the government and markets as important to reduce the depth of a real-estate downturn in an economy heavily dependent on construction for growth. Beijing Friday pressed local governments to pick up the pace of construction.
保障房建设这一步棋非常关键，不仅关系到中国普通老百姓买房子问题，还为疲态始现的中国房地产市场注入一支强心针。部分城市商品房市场价格开始回落。因为中国经济非常依赖于投资与建设，北京此举是为了避免楼市陷入低迷。星期五中央要求地方政府加紧保障房建设的进度。

A failure to meet the construction goals would add to risks of a sharp decline in Chinese property market, which in turn could slow Chinese growth more than expected and harm a global economy leaning heavily on China amid tepid recoveries in the U.S. and Europe.
如果此举失败，将会增大中国楼市崩盘的危险，并直接损害中国的经济增长，进而拖慢美国和欧洲和全球的恢复，因为他们都依靠中国带动。

China's real-estate problems come at a time when the country's foreign-trade figures also suggest a slowing economy. "Slowdown, not meltdown," read a headline on a report by HSBC on Friday after China reported a trade surplus of $13.05 billion. Although the surplus was 14.5% higher than in April, the numbers fell short of analyst estimates and suggested a weakening of domestic demand, according to some analysts.
中国进出口数字显示经济开始放缓，这时房地产危机出现了。中国刚刚公布了贸易顺差为130亿5千万，“放缓，不是崩盘”，汇丰银行星期五公布的一份报告题目写道。一些分析人士认为：虽然顺差数字比4月提高14.5%，但小于预期，这是内需不足的表现。

Imports grew 28.4% in May compared to a year earlier, but Goldman Sachs argued that the big increase was largely because imports were weak in May 2010. Over the past three months, Goldman Sachs said, imports were down 4.6% on an annual basis, when adjusted for seasonal variations in demand. HSBC forecast that import growth would "moderate" due to slowing domestic demand and a "downshift" in international manufacturing.
5月进口数字与去年同比上涨28.4%，Goldman Sachs认为增幅巨大是因为去年5月的进口数字偏低，考虑到季度差异，进口与年均水平相比下降4.6%。汇丰预期进口数字会相对“温和”，因为内需不足和国际制造业市场下挫。

Related News
China's Great Property Bubble May Be Popping
U.S. Retailers Lobby to Bring Chinese Tourists
Big Funds See Red in China
Real Time Economics: What a China Slowdown Means for the World
China Real Time: Economists React: May's Unexpected Import Growth
China Real Time: How Reliable is Chinese GDP Data?
China Real Time: Housing-Market Bad Guys
China Real Time: China Drags Feet on Affordable Housing



Export growth, meanwhile, decelerated to 19.4% in May from a year earlier, compared to 29.9% in April.
5月出口数字与去年同比增幅19.4%，小于4月数字29.9%。

During the past few years, China's turbo-powered economy has depended on a real-estate boom to power the construction, steel, cement and other industries and to act as an investment vehicle for Chinese looking for higher yields. But soaring housing prices have produced a real-estate bubble, and its collapse could batter the Chinese economy. Chinese economic planners have been trying put restrictions on purchasers to let prices decline gradually.
过去几年，中国依靠楼市兴旺带动建造业，钢铁，水泥和其他行业的迅速发展，它们是中国经济发展的火车头。但是楼价高涨催生房地产泡沫，如果楼市倒了会进一步危及经济，中国的经济管理者尝试引入限购令让房价逐渐下跌。

To make sure the restrictions don't crimp growth too much—and to make sure that housing remains affordable for many of China's 1.34 billion people —China committed in its latest five-year plan to building 36 million units of what it calls social housing by the end of 2015, including starting construction on 10 million units this year. If the plan works, 20% of urban households would have access to low-income rentals in 2015, according to UBS.
要保证限购不会过多影响经济增长，又得让13.4亿中国人可以消费得起房子，最新出台的5年计划指出，至2015年中国将建造3600万套社会保障房，包括今年正在建造的1000万套。据瑞银数据，如果计划凑效，到2015年中国城市里20%的房子可供给低收入家庭租住。

On Friday, though, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said that local governments must start construction on the units by November, pushing back by a month the date that construction was required to begin. By the end of May, work had begun on only 30% of the 10 million units, reported state-run Xinhua news agency recently.
住房和城乡建设部部长周五表示，地方政府一定要在11月前开始动工建设保障房，比此前定下的日期推迟了一个月。新华社报道，至5月底，1000万套保障房开工率只有30%。

Local governments have been slow to move ahead. Housing Minister Jiang Jianxin tried to turn up the pressure on the local municipalities when he released a statement Friday saying that social housing "is not only an economic mission, it is a political mission."
地方政府迟迟不肯动手。住建部长姜伟新尝试向各地方政府施压，周五下发的一份文件中称：这不是经济任务，这是政治任务。

Five-year plans are full of goals, some of them firm commitments, others mostly guidance; it's often hard to tell the difference. The statement was a way of making clear that local officials would be judged by their ability to carry out the housing goals.
《五年计划》一个个非常恢宏，一些是保证，另一些是纲要，很难分出两者区别。《计划》明确指出，地方官员关于保障房建设任务的完成情况将作为政绩考核。

Ernest Ho, a Morgan Stanley analyst, said that the government needs a big burst of construction by the end of August to keep the program on track. That's because the plan was announced in March, and it takes developers between four to six months to line up the regulatory approvals and financing to start construction.
摩根斯坦利一名分析师Ernest Ho表示，政府要保证计划如期进行，得八月末以前开始大动作。计划是三月份公布的，建造商需要4至6个月来准备各种批文和资金。

The program is beset by fights over funding. China needs at least 1.3 trillion yuan ($200 billion) to pay for the public housing projects this year, according to official estimates. Central and local governments are expected to pay for only about 40% of the cost, with the rest to come from businesses, residents and other local organizations.
中国政府利用保障房计划控制过度放贷，官方估计，至少需要13000亿人民币（2000亿美元）来保障计划顺利进行。中央和地方政府支付其中40%，其余由商业融资，其他机构和购房者支付。

Local governments often depend on land sales to fund their share of infrastructure projects. But they have little financial incentive to sell land for low-income housing, which will fetch lower prices from developers than land used for luxury apartments.
地方政府的建设资金大部分来自卖地。地卖给房地产商建高级楼盘来钱快，因此地方政府不愿将地用来建没多少油水的保障房。

The Housing Ministry also said it was concerned whether developers would meet quality requirements, given the short time frame of the massive construction project. A Xinhua commentary last week criticized developers for using shoddy materials to cut costs.
鉴于短时间内要开展如此大型的建设计划，住建部表示关注保障房的质量问题。上周一则新华社发表的评论批评建筑单位使用劣质材料。

It's also unclear whether the housing project will deliver the economic punch promised. UBS analyst Tao Wang estimates that as many as four million of the 10 million units will consist of dormitories and other older housing "reclassified" as social housing. Even if those units are renovated, they may not provide as much of a lift to the construction industry as new housing.
作为提振经济的一记重拳，保障房计划能否如前所愿，目前还不得而知。瑞银分析师Tao Wang预计，大约1000万套保障房中的400万套，政府将会用其他房源或老房子充数。虽然这些套间需要翻新，但跟新房相比，它们对经济所做的贡献还是太小。


Comment
Mike Zhang wrote:
Never heard affordable-housing could be a major threat or stimulus to China's economy, one way or another.
张麦克写道：
从未听过保障房项目会成为提振中国经济的一个主要障碍，或者相反。

Shanghai is slightly ahead of its plan of affordable-housing construction. Those houses will get into the market in mass by the end of 2011. It's a great force to control the housing price.
上海在保障房建设的步伐已经提前于计划，2011年底这些房屋会大量进入市场，从而有力控制当地房价。

Jiyong Chen wrote:
"A failure to meet the construction goals would add to risks of a sharp decline in Chinese property market."
Urhhh, never heard of any country's real estate or economy is threatened by not build enough new public apartment where government pay the difference on the price for the poor.
陈基永写道：
从未听过有什么国家的房地产或者经济会受到威胁，因为没建造足够的公房去满足穷人的需要。

If there are enough affordable public housing pay by the government, then there will be less people buying the regular priced housing, is that going to hold up the real estate price???
如果政府提供足够的保障房，那么买商品房的人就少了，这样会平抑楼价？？？

In China, same as everywhere, suburb housing with long long commute to city are pretty affordable. In cities of course they are expensive, just like any major city downtown apartments.
跟其他地方一样，中国的郊区楼盘非常便宜。市区的楼盘非常贵，正如许多主要城市市中心商品房。

Maybe US should build more public housing everywhere to stimulate its economy and stop the housing price slide despite enough housing are built already? Isn't China in the same situation, there are enough housing built and still building more?
或许美国该到处多建些公房以提振经济，减缓楼价下跌，尽管已经建了足够房子？
中国的情况相同吗？已经建了足够房子，而且还在建？

This article is as brain less as a pig, which even insulting the pig.
写这篇文章的是猪脑袋，连猪都不如。