俄杜马选举

这两天国际时政焦点当属俄杜马选举，先来一篇环球评论调整下口味，后面会分别译出西方评论。

http://opinion.huanqiu.com/roll/2011-12/2235957.html

社评：俄选票流向变化的多重启示

摘要：中国社会的理性将长期面临冲击和考验。中国必须走向民主，但要通过学习和政治创新获得高于西方社会的活力，而不能把西方的东西在我们巨大的国家里生搬硬套，把我们自己变成“亚西方国家”，甘居政治竞争及综合竞争的下游。

　　支持普京的统一俄罗斯党在国家杜马选举中获得勉强一半的选票，比该党预期的少很多。西方舆论一致认为，这次选举是普京的“重大挫折”，与一天前对该选举是“徒有其表”甚至“胡闹”的愤怒指责相比，昨天的西方舆论普遍挺高兴的。

　　这件事告诉我们，在互联网时代，民意不是那么容易“操纵”的。西方对非西方国家这方面的指责有些有根据，但有很多是夸张及大批判式的。一个国家政治制度在多大程度上是合理或不合理的，评判权决不能由西方垄断。

　　因为这次支持普京的统一俄罗斯党得票率大幅下降，这个变化趋势西方愿意看到，他们的评判调门也随之发生变化。但统一俄罗斯党毕竟保住了杜马多数席位， 继续成为执政党，西方舆论于是有所保留。他们的评论是绕着弯的：尽管这次选举执政党做了大量手脚，但普京仍然遭受“重大挫折”。

　　由于普京是对西方奉行强硬政策的象征，把他选上来和把他选下去的结果，而非过程的公正与否，更像是西方认定俄罗斯选举属于“假民主”或“真民主”的真正政治基线。

　　俄罗斯选票流向的变化还告诉我们，在西方式民主条件下，长期保持社会大的政治共识是困难的。社会的政治分裂很容易出现，在走向这种民主的同时，社会必须有能力驾驭这样的分裂，使它不造成破坏性后果。

　　一旦引入竞争性选举，一党长期执政遭遇挑战大概是迟早的事。西方用几百年时间形成对政党轮替的熟练使用，东方国家能否在不付出很大社会代价的情况下，用较短时间“学好”这种政治模式，现在尚无令人信服的答案。

　　东方国家接受西方政治最彻底的是日本，但日本的自民党一党执政在选举条件下持续了50多年，那段时间总体上是日本发展最快的时期，当前日本频换首相、国家无法做出重大改革决定，日本显然并未走完它的政治过渡。

　　如果俄罗斯当前的选举文化定型下来，统一俄罗斯党终有一天下台是可以预期的。脱离普京路线的俄罗斯将如何处理国家的权力分配，显然也有不确定性。

　　人类对国家制度层面的政治学知识相当匮乏。尽管从理性的角度看，人类不可能只有一种社会治理模式，世界在西方制度下的“一元化”不是人类文明的福音。但西方现在试图将这种“一元化”在世界范围内强行推进，并努力论证这样做的政治合法性。

　　中国社会的理性将长期面临冲击和考验。中国必须走向民主，但要通过学习和政治创新获得高于西方社会的活力，而不能把西方的东西在我们巨大的国家里生搬硬套，把我们自己变成“亚西方国家”，甘居政治竞争及综合竞争的下游。

　　意识形态在世界的流传从来都是服务于利益扩张的。西方对非西方国家现在也正是这样做的。有人在分析西方对中国的“西化”和“分化”时说，西方真正愿意 的是“分化”中国，而中国的“西化”只应当是一定程度上的。如果中国被完全“西化”，却没有“分化”，甚至更团结，这比今天的中国更不符合西方的利益。

　　这种说法有没有道理，让我们用心去观察吧。

社交媒体重定位

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/15/world/asia/china-social-media-rules-weighed.html?ref=technology

China: Social Media Rules Weighed

By KEITH BRADSHER
Published: October 14, 2011

With the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party scheduled to begin meeting Saturday, Wang Chen, a senior propaganda official, said that social media need to be more tightly regulated. The government seems likely to follow through on many hints that it would step up regulation of various Twitter-like microblogs like Weibo, said Bill Bishop, an independent analyst specializing in social media.

一名高级宣传干部陈旺（音译）称，政府需对社交媒体加强监管。 中共中央委员预定本周六开会。

社交媒体独立分析人士比尔· 毕夏普表示，种种迹象表示中国政府倾向对多个与Twiiter相似的微博网站加以控制，比如新浪微博（Weibo.com）。

soviet old photos

http://savok.name/1131-neobaro.html

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?hl=en&rurl=translate.google.com.hk&sl=auto&tl=zh-CN&twu=1&u=http://savok.name/1131-neobaro.html&usg=ALkJrhhdN34L-d662Nb4bYDpNxKu9MYw2A

韶华易逝

当年







今日

A Step Toward Trust With China

纽时社论原文在此，对比阅读人民网和环球时报的三篇编译，不能不说是“选择性失明“吧。
http://world.people.com.cn/GB/14683306.html
http://world.people.com.cn/GB/57507/15253386.html
http://mil.huanqiu.com/Observation/2011-07/1849522.html

Op-Ed Contributor
A Step Toward Trust With China
By MIKE MULLEN

THE military relationship between the United States and China is one of the world’s most important. And yet, clouded by some misunderstanding and suspicion, it remains among the most challenging. There are issues on which we disagree and are tempted to confront each other. But there are crucial areas where our interests coincide, on which we must work together.
美中之间的军事关系是世界上最重要的。至目前为止，虽然双方有一些误解和猜忌，但是两国在一些关键领域仍存有共同利益，我们要为此努力。

So we need to make the relationship better, by seeking strategic trust.
两国战略互信，才能使双方关系更进一步。

How do we do that?
我们该怎样做？

First, we’ve got to keep talking. Dialogue is critical.
首先，两国需要展开对话，对话是异常重要的。

A good bit of misunderstanding between our militaries can be cleared up by reaching out to each other. We don’t have to give away secrets to make our intentions clear, just open up a little.
两国军队之间的误解有相当一部分可以通过接触来消除。双方不必暴露各自的军事机密来表明诚意，只需开放，加强交流。

That’s why I invited my counterpart in the People’s Liberation Army, Gen. Chen Bingde, to the United States in May, and it’s why he was my host in China two weeks ago. We broke new ground by, among other things, showing him Predator drone capabilities in detail and a live-fire exercise; the Chinese reciprocated with a tour of their latest submarine, a close look at an SU-27 jet fighter and a complex counterterrorism exercise.
因此我邀请对方同级官员，中国人民解放军陈秉德将军将军5月访美，礼尚往来，在陈将军的邀请下，两周前我也访问了中国。双方有突破性进展，我们向中方展示了掠食者无人侦察机的打击能力以及实弹演习【人民网译为“救火“演习】；中方回馈，向我方展示了最新型潜艇，苏-27战机，以及反恐作战演习。

Our discussions were candid and forthright. General Chen made no bones about his concerns about American arms sales to Taiwan, and I made it clear that the United States military will not shrink from our responsibilities to allies and partners. He said the P.L.A.’s strategic intentions were purely defensive; I said that neither the skills they were perfecting nor their investments seemed to support that argument.
双方对话坦白直率。陈将军亦毫无保留，表示关切美国对台军售问题，他称，中国人民解放军的战略意图纯粹是防卫性的。我重申美国军方一定履行作为战略伙伴的义务，并指出解放军的战术素养及军费投入都无法证明它是“防卫性“的。

Not exactly cordial, but at least we were talking.
虽然谈不上很诚恳，但至少我们在对话。

Second, we need to focus on the things we have in common.
第二，两国需要求同。

We’re both maritime nations with long coastlines and economies dependent on unhindered trade. We both face threats of drug trafficking, piracy and the movement of weapons of mass destruction. We both want stability on the Korean Peninsula and in Pakistan. We both recognize the need for coordinated international humanitarian aid and disaster relief.
两国同是拥有长长海岸线的海洋国家，经济都依赖自由贸易，同样面对来自毒品，走私以及大规模杀伤性武器的威胁，同样希望朝鲜半岛和平，同样认同国际人道主义援助以及扶贫的理念。

These are challenges we can tackle together, and missions we can plan and train for, and perhaps someday execute side by side. Our staffs signed a few initiatives in that regard, including a commitment to conduct joint counter-piracy exercises in the Gulf of Aden this year.
两国需要共同面对，解决一些问题，终有一天会并肩前进。在这种愿望下，美中将开展一系列军事交流项目，包括今年在亚丁湾进行联合反海盗演习。

Good steps all, but there is a long way to go.
迈出有进展性的步伐，后面仍有相当长一段路。

We still don’t see eye-to-eye with China over military operating rights in the South China Sea. We still don’t fully understand China’s justification for the rapid growth in its defense spending or its long-term military modernization goals. And we don’t believe that China should be allowed to resolve disputes in contested waters by coercing smaller nations. Instead, as Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has made clear, we advocate a collaborative diplomatic process among all parties to resolve disputes under international law. And we need better mechanisms to deal with inevitable tensions.
我们始终不认为中方拥有在南中国海调配军队的权利，也看不清楚中国在军费快速增长和长期军队现代化建设后面的真实意图，我们也不相信中国能够（被国际允许）通过压制弱小邻国来解决南海边界争端。

That said, these sticking points aren’t all bad. It’s all right to disagree sometimes, to have substantial differences.
有争议不全是坏事情，观点相左的情况时有发生，也是很正常的。

In fact, sometimes bluntness and honesty are exactly what’s needed to create strategic trust. And we will need more of it. Our military relations have only recently begun to thaw, but China’s government still uses them as a sort of thermostat to communicate displeasure. When they don’t like something we do, they cut off ties. That can’t be the model anymore. Nor can we, for our part, swing between engagement and over-reaction. That’s why the commitment by President Obama and President Hu Jintao to improve military-to-military relations is so important. Real trust has to start somewhere. And it shouldn’t be subject to shifting political winds.
事实上，取得战略互信，有时候需要双方更加坦诚，互相退让。美中军方间的关系开始回暖，但中方仍利用这种关系，在不认同我们某些做法的时候，切断双方联系。这种模式不能再持续下去了。同样，美方也不能采取在对话和过度反应之间摇摆的办法。因此奥巴马总统与胡锦涛总书记均认为加强双边军事合作非常重要。真正的互信要从某处开始，并且不受政治风向影响。

So, General Chen and I are considering more frequent discussions, more exercises, more personnel exchanges. We both believe that the younger generation of military officers is ready for closer contact, and that upon their shoulders rests the best hope for deeper, more meaningful trust.
我和陈将军都同意加强讨论，多搞联合演习和个人交流。我和他都认为年轻一代军官都已经准备好对话，以良好的愿望和心态迎接更深入的互信。

I’m not naïve. I understand the concerns of those who feel that any cooperation benefits China more than the United States. I just don’t agree. This relationship is too important to manage through blind suspicion and mistrust. We’ve tried that. It doesn’t work.
我不是想入非非，并且了解某些人认为加强合作有益于中国多于我国自身，我不同意这种观点，美中关系太重要了，过去的经验证明，盲目和猜忌不能解决问题。

I’m not suggesting we look the other way on serious issues, that we abandon healthy skepticism, or that we change our military’s focus on the region. But we need to keep communication open and work hard to improve each interaction.
我并不建议抛弃正确的审时度势，使用别的方式处理重大问题，或者改变我军在亚太地区的部署方针。但是美中双方需要加强沟通，努力改善关系。

We can shrink from this opportunity, or rise to it. We can let narrow interests and suspicion define our relationship, or work toward more transparency, more pragmatic expectations of each other, and more focus on our common challenges. That would be a great start toward strategic trust.
面对如此机遇，我国可以选择退缩，也可以从中变得强大；可以靠盲目猜忌去处理双边关系，也可以通过更长远的眼光，更加灵活的手法来迎接双方的共同挑战。这将是两国战略互信的一个重要开始。

Mike Mullen, a Navy admiral, is the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
麦克·马伦，海军上将，系参谋长联席会议主席

Girls eat only half their five-a-day

http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/jul/21/teenagers-children-diets-research-health

Girls eat only half their five-a-day - research
from SocietyGuardian - news, comment and analysis on the public and voluntary sectors | guardian.co.uk by Denis Campbell

Doctors express concern over high levels of saturated fat and too little fruit, vegetables and iron in many teenagers' diets
儿童食谱中饱和脂肪含量高，蔬菜、水果、铁含量太低，医生对此表示关注。

Doctors have voiced fears about teenagers' health after new government research showed that many children's diets contain too much saturated fat and too little fruit, vegetables and iron.
医生提醒市民注意，政府调查显示儿童膳食中饱和脂肪多，蔬菜水果和铁元素含量小。

Girls' eating habits emerged as a particular concern: those aged 11 to 18 consume on average only 2.7 of the recommended five portions a day of fruit and vegetables, with just 5% eating what official guidelines say are needed for good health. Boys the same age eat too little as well, with an average of 3.1 portions a day, and just 13% having the full five a day.
少女的饮食习惯引起社会关注，专家表示11-18岁年龄段每天需进食五份蔬菜水果，仅有5%少女饮食达标，总体平均每天消耗2.7份。男生情况类似，有13%达标，总体平均每天消耗3.1份。

Teenage girls are meant to consume 8mg a day of iron, but 44% do not do so, according to findings from the annual National Diet and Nutrition Surveys for 2008/09 and 2009/10. That suggests that they are eating too little bread, cereals, meat, meat products, fish, eggs and nuts.
少女每日需摄取8毫克铁，国家营养饮食调查委员会2008年9月至2009年10月数据显示，大约44%的少女没有达到标准。数据表明少女膳食中面包、谷物、肉和肉类产品，鱼、蛋以及坚果含量太少。

The results prompted the Department of Health to warn that children's "poor eating habits risk storing up a number of potential problems for later life, such as heart disease and some cancers".
卫生部发出警告：不良饮食习惯对日后健康造成印象，容易得诸如心脏病和癌症等疾病。

The survey also showed that children of all age groups continue to consume more than the recommended amount of saturated fats Adults typically get 12.8% of their food energy from these, which should not exceed 11%. It is the same with sugar: intake of non-milk extrinsic sugars – sugars that have been added to food or released during processing – provides more than the recommended 11% of food energy in 19- to 64-year-olds and children aged four and over.
此次调查表明，全年龄组饱和脂肪摄入均超标，成人每日摄取饱和脂肪所含能量占总摄入能量12.8%，超过11%的标准。糖的摄入亦超标，19-64岁年龄段，4岁以上儿童摄入各类添加糖的能量占总摄入能量超过11%的标准。

"These new figures show that a significant number of children are overweight, and equally worryingly, the majority of our teenagers don't eat as healthily as they should," said Professor Terence Stephenson, president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health. "It's naive to think we can defuse the 'ticking time-bomb' of long-term effects on health with simply a nudge here and a nudge there. Voluntary agreements with industry are fine as far as they go but what will make a difference is an evidence-based, and possibly regulatory, approach to protecting and promoting our children's health."
“数字表明相当一部分儿童超重，大部分儿童饮食习惯不健康。”皇家学院儿科主任Terence Stephenson说，“不良饮食习惯影响健康是长期过程，那些认为我们能轻易拆除定时炸弹的想法相当幼稚，生产企业自律和监管非常重要，但要建立在科学研究、实验支撑的基础上，循序渐进，行之有效的改变。

Kawther Hashem, co-ordinator of the Children's Food Campaign, said: "We are highly concerned that teenagers' diets are becoming increasingly unhealthy, boosting their risk of heart disease, cancer and other illnesses as adults. The government has failed to acknowledge the role the junk food industry plays in undermining young people's health. As long as children and teenagers are bombarded by junk food marketing, they will be encouraged to make unhealthy dietary choices."
儿童饮食协会联络员Kawther Hashem说：”我们对儿童不良的饮食习惯感到忧虑，他们长大的过程中，得心脏病、癌症的几率相对增加。政府没有意识到垃圾食物工业正在损害儿童的健康，只要垃圾食物到处营销和广告轰炸，儿童就会养成不健康的饮食习惯。

Health minister Paul Burstow admitted that the population's food habits were a concern. "Over the last ten years we have not seen the improvements we should have," he said. He insisted the coalition's controversial public health policies, especially its responsibility deal involving food and alcohol producers as well as some health charities, would help tackle obesity.
卫生部长Paul Burstow表示政府已经注意到民众的饮食问题，他说：“过去10年来，我们没有看到本该有的进步。”他坚持联合政府的民众健康计划，特别是食品酒类生产商和健康慈善机构的联合立法，能够有效遏制肥胖。

But Hashem said it was "ridiculous for government to argue that companies like Mars, McDonald's, PepsiCo and Pizza Hut should write the government's health policies. They have no interest in young people eating more fruit and vegetables. They make their profits peddling sweets, fizzy drinks and processed foods."
Hashem反驳道：“玛氏、麦当劳、百事可乐、必胜客这些公司为政府制定健康政策，简直叫人笑掉大牙，他们对年轻人多吃水果蔬菜不感冒，相反，他们让年轻人多卖糖果、碳酸饮料和加工食品才能涨荷包。

More encouragingly, the Department of Health, which co-funded the studies, said: "Younger children's eating habits are improving, with parents taking positive steps to give their kids a healthier diet with fewer sweets, fizzy drinks, chocolate, and also switching them to high-fibre cereals. Comparing this survey with the previous survey in 1997, younger children (age 4-10) appear to be switching to high-fibre breakfast cereals from non-high-fibre cereals, eating more fruit and vegetables, and less confectionery and soft drinks," said a spokesman.
另外，卫生部资助此次研究，其发言人说：”当今年轻人的饮食习惯日趋合理，父母让孩子少吃糖果、巧克力，少喝碳酸饮料，多吃高纤维的谷物。与1997的调查相比较，现在4-10岁儿童吃更多高纤维谷物，更多水果，少吃糖果和少喝软性饮料。

Growing numbers of adults are now using lower-fat milk than before, while the general intake of transfats, which have been linked to heart disease, is well below the recommended maximum.
饮用低脂奶的成年人数增加，乳品中饱和脂肪会引致心血管疾病，低脂奶中的饱和脂肪比食用标准低很多。

Professor Dame Sally Davies, the chief medical officer, said it was important for teenagers to have a balanced diet in order to help ward off illnesses such as cancer and heart disease as adults.
英国主要医官，Dame Sally Davies教授称，儿童养成均衡饮食习惯对预防成人癌症和心血管疾病非常重要。

鳳樓老襟投訴被截胡

http://www.hkdailynews.com.hk/news.php?id=169468
鳳樓老襟投訴被截胡

陳家偉叫雞衰打尖

民主黨前總幹事陳家偉涉嫌嫖妓事件餘波未了，本報獲得目擊者提供的一手資料，指事發時陳家偉因為「打尖」，惹來排隊等候的嫖客不滿，因而向報社舉報其「惡行」，若事件屬實，陳家偉可謂衰在不守秩序和「猴擒」，令其名譽掃地，堪稱是最大的教訓。 採訪：專案組

本報昨日接獲一名男子來電，對方化名X先生，並坦承自己是嫖客，並講述當日事發經過，「鹹網討論區有好多留言，都大讚香檳大廈陀地妹『婷婷』好正，又後生，身材又好，仲好好服務添！幾嚿水消費絕對物有所值，我都係睇留言先至去幫襯。」

自稱熟客搶入閘
X先生稱，當日他去到香檳大廈，在「陀地區」找到「婷婷」的鳳樓，當時已經有3個人在門口排隊，他本來想去其他鳳樓拍門，但心想一場來到，等等也無所謂，況且這麼多人等，相信「婷婷」的口碑是真的。
他又說：「我等成個半鐘頭，先至輪到我排頭位，見到鳳樓道門打開，上一個客行出，我諗：仲唔輪到我，於是行入去；點知呢個時候，陳家偉就行埋打尖，自稱係熟客，唔該都冇聲，大搖大擺入去。
X先生大表不滿，因為他家住紅磡，而陳家偉以前是九龍城區議員，所以認得出他，於是向報社舉報其行蹤，結果令事件曝光。
本報記者昨日曾致電陳家偉手機，了解打尖的指控是否屬實，但已無法聯絡，記者亦到過香檳大廈鳳樓，已不見「婷婷」芳蹤，令幾名慕名而來的嫖客大表掃興；據知情者透露，本港大部份陀地鳳姐，都是受僱賣淫集團，據知「婷婷」亦屬此類，已被安排到其他地區鳳樓接客。
此外，警方懷疑「婷婷」租用的房並非一樓一鳳，而是屬違例的「一樓多鳳」，已對此展開調查，暫未有人被捕。

事件引起政界譁然
本周二（12日），陳家偉被人發現光顧尖沙嘴香檳大廈一鳳姐「婷婷」，在房間逗留40分鐘後，女管房替「完事」的陳開門送客。陳見到記者即狼狽逃跑，其後承認背黨、瞞妻光顧鳳樓，又辯稱付錢給鳳姐做「訪談」，並叫全裸鳳姐在他面前示範各種性愛姿勢，他在旁提點如何才是安全性行為。
事件曝光後，引起政界譁然，陳隨即辭去民主黨總幹事職務，並申請退出民主黨，並獲得主席何俊仁批准，他亦發表聲明，對今次事件影響民主黨聲譽感到內疚及道歉。

Affordable-Housing Delays Threaten China's Economy

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304778304576377070740151388.html

ASIA NEWS
JUNE 11, 2011

Affordable-Housing Delays Threaten China's Economy
By BOB DAVIS
保障房建造缓慢威胁中国经济

BEIJING—China acknowledged it was falling behind schedule on ambitious plans to build low-income housing, a delay that could add to concerns around its economy.
北京意识到它雄心勃勃的计划-保障房建设落后于进度，最终会影响经济。

The low-income housing push is crucial, not only as a way to help ordinary Chinese buy homes, but to provide an economic cushion at a time when signs of a real-estate downturn are emerging. Prices of new apartments and the volume of construction have begun to fall in some cities. A big spurt in low-income housing construction has been seen by the government and markets as important to reduce the depth of a real-estate downturn in an economy heavily dependent on construction for growth. Beijing Friday pressed local governments to pick up the pace of construction.
保障房建设这一步棋非常关键，不仅关系到中国普通老百姓买房子问题，还为疲态始现的中国房地产市场注入一支强心针。部分城市商品房市场价格开始回落。因为中国经济非常依赖于投资与建设，北京此举是为了避免楼市陷入低迷。星期五中央要求地方政府加紧保障房建设的进度。

A failure to meet the construction goals would add to risks of a sharp decline in Chinese property market, which in turn could slow Chinese growth more than expected and harm a global economy leaning heavily on China amid tepid recoveries in the U.S. and Europe.
如果此举失败，将会增大中国楼市崩盘的危险，并直接损害中国的经济增长，进而拖慢美国和欧洲和全球的恢复，因为他们都依靠中国带动。

China's real-estate problems come at a time when the country's foreign-trade figures also suggest a slowing economy. "Slowdown, not meltdown," read a headline on a report by HSBC on Friday after China reported a trade surplus of $13.05 billion. Although the surplus was 14.5% higher than in April, the numbers fell short of analyst estimates and suggested a weakening of domestic demand, according to some analysts.
中国进出口数字显示经济开始放缓，这时房地产危机出现了。中国刚刚公布了贸易顺差为130亿5千万，“放缓，不是崩盘”，汇丰银行星期五公布的一份报告题目写道。一些分析人士认为：虽然顺差数字比4月提高14.5%，但小于预期，这是内需不足的表现。

Imports grew 28.4% in May compared to a year earlier, but Goldman Sachs argued that the big increase was largely because imports were weak in May 2010. Over the past three months, Goldman Sachs said, imports were down 4.6% on an annual basis, when adjusted for seasonal variations in demand. HSBC forecast that import growth would "moderate" due to slowing domestic demand and a "downshift" in international manufacturing.
5月进口数字与去年同比上涨28.4%，Goldman Sachs认为增幅巨大是因为去年5月的进口数字偏低，考虑到季度差异，进口与年均水平相比下降4.6%。汇丰预期进口数字会相对“温和”，因为内需不足和国际制造业市场下挫。

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Export growth, meanwhile, decelerated to 19.4% in May from a year earlier, compared to 29.9% in April.
5月出口数字与去年同比增幅19.4%，小于4月数字29.9%。

During the past few years, China's turbo-powered economy has depended on a real-estate boom to power the construction, steel, cement and other industries and to act as an investment vehicle for Chinese looking for higher yields. But soaring housing prices have produced a real-estate bubble, and its collapse could batter the Chinese economy. Chinese economic planners have been trying put restrictions on purchasers to let prices decline gradually.
过去几年，中国依靠楼市兴旺带动建造业，钢铁，水泥和其他行业的迅速发展，它们是中国经济发展的火车头。但是楼价高涨催生房地产泡沫，如果楼市倒了会进一步危及经济，中国的经济管理者尝试引入限购令让房价逐渐下跌。

To make sure the restrictions don't crimp growth too much—and to make sure that housing remains affordable for many of China's 1.34 billion people —China committed in its latest five-year plan to building 36 million units of what it calls social housing by the end of 2015, including starting construction on 10 million units this year. If the plan works, 20% of urban households would have access to low-income rentals in 2015, according to UBS.
要保证限购不会过多影响经济增长，又得让13.4亿中国人可以消费得起房子，最新出台的5年计划指出，至2015年中国将建造3600万套社会保障房，包括今年正在建造的1000万套。据瑞银数据，如果计划凑效，到2015年中国城市里20%的房子可供给低收入家庭租住。

On Friday, though, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said that local governments must start construction on the units by November, pushing back by a month the date that construction was required to begin. By the end of May, work had begun on only 30% of the 10 million units, reported state-run Xinhua news agency recently.
住房和城乡建设部部长周五表示，地方政府一定要在11月前开始动工建设保障房，比此前定下的日期推迟了一个月。新华社报道，至5月底，1000万套保障房开工率只有30%。

Local governments have been slow to move ahead. Housing Minister Jiang Jianxin tried to turn up the pressure on the local municipalities when he released a statement Friday saying that social housing "is not only an economic mission, it is a political mission."
地方政府迟迟不肯动手。住建部长姜伟新尝试向各地方政府施压，周五下发的一份文件中称：这不是经济任务，这是政治任务。

Five-year plans are full of goals, some of them firm commitments, others mostly guidance; it's often hard to tell the difference. The statement was a way of making clear that local officials would be judged by their ability to carry out the housing goals.
《五年计划》一个个非常恢宏，一些是保证，另一些是纲要，很难分出两者区别。《计划》明确指出，地方官员关于保障房建设任务的完成情况将作为政绩考核。

Ernest Ho, a Morgan Stanley analyst, said that the government needs a big burst of construction by the end of August to keep the program on track. That's because the plan was announced in March, and it takes developers between four to six months to line up the regulatory approvals and financing to start construction.
摩根斯坦利一名分析师Ernest Ho表示，政府要保证计划如期进行，得八月末以前开始大动作。计划是三月份公布的，建造商需要4至6个月来准备各种批文和资金。

The program is beset by fights over funding. China needs at least 1.3 trillion yuan ($200 billion) to pay for the public housing projects this year, according to official estimates. Central and local governments are expected to pay for only about 40% of the cost, with the rest to come from businesses, residents and other local organizations.
中国政府利用保障房计划控制过度放贷，官方估计，至少需要13000亿人民币（2000亿美元）来保障计划顺利进行。中央和地方政府支付其中40%，其余由商业融资，其他机构和购房者支付。

Local governments often depend on land sales to fund their share of infrastructure projects. But they have little financial incentive to sell land for low-income housing, which will fetch lower prices from developers than land used for luxury apartments.
地方政府的建设资金大部分来自卖地。地卖给房地产商建高级楼盘来钱快，因此地方政府不愿将地用来建没多少油水的保障房。

The Housing Ministry also said it was concerned whether developers would meet quality requirements, given the short time frame of the massive construction project. A Xinhua commentary last week criticized developers for using shoddy materials to cut costs.
鉴于短时间内要开展如此大型的建设计划，住建部表示关注保障房的质量问题。上周一则新华社发表的评论批评建筑单位使用劣质材料。

It's also unclear whether the housing project will deliver the economic punch promised. UBS analyst Tao Wang estimates that as many as four million of the 10 million units will consist of dormitories and other older housing "reclassified" as social housing. Even if those units are renovated, they may not provide as much of a lift to the construction industry as new housing.
作为提振经济的一记重拳，保障房计划能否如前所愿，目前还不得而知。瑞银分析师Tao Wang预计，大约1000万套保障房中的400万套，政府将会用其他房源或老房子充数。虽然这些套间需要翻新，但跟新房相比，它们对经济所做的贡献还是太小。


Comment
Mike Zhang wrote:
Never heard affordable-housing could be a major threat or stimulus to China's economy, one way or another.
张麦克写道：
从未听过保障房项目会成为提振中国经济的一个主要障碍，或者相反。

Shanghai is slightly ahead of its plan of affordable-housing construction. Those houses will get into the market in mass by the end of 2011. It's a great force to control the housing price.
上海在保障房建设的步伐已经提前于计划，2011年底这些房屋会大量进入市场，从而有力控制当地房价。

Jiyong Chen wrote:
"A failure to meet the construction goals would add to risks of a sharp decline in Chinese property market."
Urhhh, never heard of any country's real estate or economy is threatened by not build enough new public apartment where government pay the difference on the price for the poor.
陈基永写道：
从未听过有什么国家的房地产或者经济会受到威胁，因为没建造足够的公房去满足穷人的需要。

If there are enough affordable public housing pay by the government, then there will be less people buying the regular priced housing, is that going to hold up the real estate price???
如果政府提供足够的保障房，那么买商品房的人就少了，这样会平抑楼价？？？

In China, same as everywhere, suburb housing with long long commute to city are pretty affordable. In cities of course they are expensive, just like any major city downtown apartments.
跟其他地方一样，中国的郊区楼盘非常便宜。市区的楼盘非常贵，正如许多主要城市市中心商品房。

Maybe US should build more public housing everywhere to stimulate its economy and stop the housing price slide despite enough housing are built already? Isn't China in the same situation, there are enough housing built and still building more?
或许美国该到处多建些公房以提振经济，减缓楼价下跌，尽管已经建了足够房子？
中国的情况相同吗？已经建了足够房子，而且还在建？

This article is as brain less as a pig, which even insulting the pig.
写这篇文章的是猪脑袋，连猪都不如。

Is this the soft landing?

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/07/chinas-economy

China's economy
Is this the soft landing?
会软着陆吗？

Jul 13th 2011, 20:39 by R.A. | WASHINGTON

THERE has been a fair amount of anxiety over the state of the Chinese economy of late. News of unexpectedly large debt burdens among Chinese local governments generated a wave of concern that recent Chinese growth has been entirely unsustainable. As the government was forced to turn off the credit tap, some supposed, property prices would fall and a hard landing would result.
近来有许多人对中国经济表示焦虑。中国地方政府债务危机的报道出来以后，坊间担心中国式的可持续增长能否再持续下去。在中央政府收紧贷款以后，部分人士甚至认为中国物价会急降，经济硬着陆。

That seems an unlikely scenario to me. Chinese debt burdens are manageable and its property market dynamics are quite different from those that prevailed in western bubbles markets prior to the crash. That doesn't mean that all is entirely well in China, however. Many observers have taken some comfort in the latest GDP report from China. Output rose 9.5% year-on-year in the second quarter. That constitutes a moderate slowdown from growth in the previous quarter, and was a little above expectations. It would seem that the government's efforts to slow credit growth have not precipitated an uncontrollably rapid downturn in activity.
这些情形在我看来不会发生。中国地方政府的债务总体可控，而且其商品市场的属性跟西方经济危机所引起的泡沫有所不同。当然，这不表示中国的情况乐观。许多观察家很满意中国最新的GDP报告。第二季度生产年比增长9.5%，预计第三季度增长放缓。看来政府紧缩政策并未造成经济减速过快。

Other economic data is a little more disconcerting, however. China's trade surplus surged in June. Its exports to America have been growing and its imports falling. At the same time, Chinese inflation continues to rise; the latest reading is 6.4%. And accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves persisted in the second quarter, to the tune of $153 billion. Meanwhile, a closer look at the GDP report indicated that the contribution of fixed-asset investment to growth tumbled in June, with industrial activity offsetting the fall. Retail sales of consumer goods have held at a constant growth level for most of the year.
其余的经济数据有些令人不安。6月中国出超飙升，向美洲出口增加，进口减少。同时，通胀持续，最新的数字是6.4%。第二季度外汇储备相对稳定，1千5百3十亿美元。对GDP报告的进一步研究指出，6月固定资产投资减少，抵消掉工业的增速。商品零售已年均速度稳定增长。

What does this tell us? China's leaders recognise the need to rein in the country's building boom, but they are likely concerned about the prospects for other sectors that might provide a cushion against a falling growth contribution from construction. One hope was that a boom in affordable-housing construction might offset declines in market-rate property development, but the affordable-housing effort continues to run into delays.
上面的数据告诉我们什么？中国的领导人认识到需要控制国内的建造业大跃进，他们可能更关心能给建造业衰退提供缓冲的，另外一些产业。其中一种想法是寄望于保障房建造，能充抵同样市价的其他投资，问题是保障房建设老延迟于计划进度。


The long-run hope is that household consumption begins to pick up and drive economic growth. But as the GDP data indicate, China is struggling to mobilise its consumers. That therefore leaves the industrial export channel to pick up the slack, and that, seemingly, is what's occuring.
长期计划是希望住房消费能带动经济增长。但是GDP数据显示，中国还在忙于疏散有购物力房的消费者（国八条？）。剩下的洞只能让出口来补了，现在看来也正是如此。

Too much emphasis is placed on the yuan's peg to the dollar, but the relationship tells a useful story here. China allowed the yuan to begin appreciating against the dollar last June, but after a first tick upward it leveled off and even declined against the dollar through last summer. Why? China appeared to be troubled by the slowdown in global economic activity. In the fall, when the data turned positive again, the yuan embarked once more on a steady appreciation.
太多人强调人民币与美元挂钩，这哥俩的一升一跌告诉我们一个重要信息。去年6月中国政府允许人民币对美元升值，刚升了一会儿就停了，甚至还跌破了原来水平，为什么呢？原来是中国政府面对全球经济放缓显得不太有信心。第三季度，情况有所好转，人民币才直线走高。

But the yuan has once again leveled off in recent months. And this pause in appreciation is particularly curious given the problems China is having with inflation, which are being exacerbated by the reserve accumulation that accompanies its currency management. In short, now would seem to be a very good time to allow the yuan to rise a bit more. But the yuan isn't rising. I think that's because China sees little choice but to use exports to offset the impact of falling fixed-asset investment.
最近几月人民升值的脚步又停了下来，可能的原因是，央行外汇储备和汇率调整引起通货膨胀。短期内，是人民币再次升值的好时机。但央行按兵不动，我想可能政府想让出口去弥补下滑的固定资产投资额。

The rub is this: an artificially cheap yuan is one of the ways China suppresses household purchasing power and consumer spending. Its support for exporters is discouraging households that might otherwise be flexing their muscles and leading a rise in domestic-demand growth.
造成了这样一个结果，人为干预让人民币保持低价，是中国控制楼市过热，物价飙升的手段，这种方法虽然有利出口，却损害了普通民众消费的欲望，也就是减缓了国内市场的发展步伐。

Couldn't China just let the currency rise and count on households to provide the growth that exporters no longer can? A new paper by Barry Eichengreen and Andrew Rose suggests it's not that simple. They assemble a sample of countries that left pegged currencies with the expectation that appreciation would follow, and they find that in most cases economic disaster does not result. But:
“[I]t is possible to pinpoint the kind of circumstances where the decision to move to greater flexibility is likely to be followed by a significant economic slowdown. The slowdown‐prone economies are those with exceptionally low consumption rates and high investment rates. They are economies where exports and domestic credit have been growing most rapidly. To put it simply, they are economies with Chinese characteristics.”
那中国能否让人民币升值，然后以楼市替代出口带动经济？一份由Barry Eichengreen和Andrew Rose共同撰写的报告指出，问题远非如此简单。他们构架了一个模型：汇率挂钩，人民币升值，虽不致引发危机。但是，“值得指出，这种灵活汇率制度可能引发明显的经济衰退，低消费，搞投资，出口和贷款快速增加的国家首当期冲。简单来说，就是具有中国经济特色的国家。


China needs a way to rebalance its economy without undergoing a big slowdown, of the sort that might lead to political instability (highly undesirable as a power handover looms). Until now, China managed to take steps in this direction by revving up fixed-asset investment, but it now finds itself forced to pull back on that front. Seemingly short of ideas, it has since returned to the model of big surpluses and reserve accumulation.
中国经济需要重新调节，以免陷入严重衰退，和随之而来的政治动荡。中国政府希望加大固定资产投资，但是发现又回到原点，黔驴技穷之际，只能捡起出超和大量持外汇的方法了。

It's going to end at some point. Maybe not with an economic crash. Amid a growth slowdown, however, the political system could prove somewhat more brittle.
总会以某种方式结束，也许不会经济崩盘。经济放缓，我们将看到中国的政治架构变得脆弱。